Caitlin Clark Stardom Will Help Create More Women Problem Gamblers
Caitlin Clark was arguably the greatest women’s college basketball player in history during her career at the University of Iowa. Following the Indiana Fever taking her first overall in the 2024 WNBA Draft, Clark brings her enormous talents and star power to the pro scene.
She’s perhaps the biggest name in women’s sports since state-sanctioned sports betting expanded in the U.S. following a 2018 U.S. Supreme Court ruling.
Her popularity has greatly boosted women’s basketball viewership and, with it, more gambling on the sport, as well as more women sports bettors overall.
She is a feel-good sports story. However, some people who gamble on her basketball performances will suffer gambling-related harm.
Caitlin Clark Betting Impact
Clark broke the NCAA all-time scoring record ahead of the 2024 NCAA Tournament, so the attention on her games was already immense before March Madness kicked off.
The sports betting industry reported a 30% year-over-year increase in women gambling on the NCAA Women’s Tournament (BetMGM Sportsbook) due to Clark.
The betting industry also saw a significant year-over-year uptick in 2023 due to Clark.
FanDuel Sportsbook reported that the Iowa Hawkeyes versus LSU Tigers rematch in the 2024 NCAA Women’s Elite Eight was the most heavily bet women’s sporting event in company history. A mix of men and women bet on the game, with FanDuel not providing a demographic breakdown.
Both FanDuel and BetMGM operate online gambling in Iowa, home to Clark’s diehard fans.
March Madness prop bets on Clark, such as the number of 3-pointers she would make in a game, were nearly twice as popular as the next most-bet player, Zach Edey of Purdue. Clark was the biggest star of the tournaments, an unprecedented event for women’s basketball.
While there is no official data on how many women bet on sports for the first time because of Clark, what we can glean from industry data is that her historic 2023-24 season likely boosted the female sports betting population by several million, whether through state-sanctioned or unregulated channels.
Many of those female sports bettors are likely to continue betting, whether on Clark or other sports. Let’s look at some numbers.
Will Female Problem Betting Grow?
Studies have shown that about 10% of people who bet on sports will develop a problem. It’s unlikely an underestimation.
One survey found that nearly half of NFL bettors “acknowledge having bet more than they could afford to lose.” The rates of problematic betting behavior can depend on the sport.
In 2023, the Pew Research Center found that 16% of people who follow sports closely do so because they gamble. That implies a problematic relationship with their sports interest.
Let’s return to the topic of this article: female sports gamblers.
According to an early 2024 survey from YouGov, 28% of all sports bettors are women.
How many sports bettors are there in the United States? As many of a quarter of adults (American Gaming Association, Pew Research Center) report some sports betting activity. Based on the adult population, about 64.5 million people bet on sports in the U.S.
Of course, some far less frequently than others.
Based on that figure, there are about 18.1 million U.S. women who bet on sports.
Based on what the sports betting industry divulged about the Caitlin Clark March Madness boom, she could bring as many as 5.4 million additional women to sports betting.
If about 10% of those new women sports bettors develop a sports gambling problem, that means Clark’s stardom could help create more than 500,000 female problem sports bettors.
That would be in addition to the roughly 1.8 million women sports bettors who are already experiencing issues with their gambling.
Let’s summarize the figures:
Estimated # of sports bettors: 64.5m
Estimated # of problem sports bettors: 6.45m
Estimated # of female sports bettors: 18.1m
Estimated # of female problem sports bettors: 1.8m
Estimated increase in female sports bettors due to Caitlin Clark: 5.4m
Estimated increase in female problem sports bettors due to Clark: 540k
Bad Caitlin Clark Bets for WNBA Rookie Season
One of the ways that people develop a problem with sports betting is by wagering on improbable events with a potential payout that is too low relative to the chances of the outcome.
This is, of course, how sportsbooks make money.
The most popular season-long Clark prop bet at BetMGM was on her to score 50 or more points in a game during her rookie season. The price offered was +1600 (to win $1,600, you’d have to risk $100). Lesser or greater amounts can be bet.
It’s a long-shot bet with a terrible price. Just three players in WNBA history have scored 50+ points, with the record being 53 from A'ja Wilson and Liz Cambage.
Clark will, of course, score many points and might break the single-game WNBA scoring record in her career, but the sportsbook price is a bad deal. Her chances of scoring 50+ in her rookie year are much lower than the 6% price probability offered by the betting site.
You’d be getting swindled by wagering. The industry frames it as “entertainment.”
Another very popular wager on BetMGM was +700 for Clark to break the single-game three-pointers record. The record stands at nine. It could happen, but the sportsbook’s price is unfairly below a reasonable real-life, albeit theoretical, probability.
Sports betting sites capitalized on the Clark media buzz by offering unfairly priced props.
Losing when you think the odds of winning were greater than they actually were can exacerbate the behavior of chasing losses. Why? Because it can reinforce the belief that you were unlucky. In reality, Clark scoring 50+ her rookie year might be a one-in-a-1,000 probability event. Perhaps it’s even less likely.
The sportsbook prices for Clark can warp your perception of reality.
You’re probably not going to feel disappointed when you don’t succeed at something with a 0.001% chance. However, you are much more likely to feel disappointed if something with a 6% chance didn't work out for you.
Not everyone who starts sports betting because of Clark will develop a problem or a full-blown gambling disorder, but a large number of women will.
Image by Sergey Gorbachev from Pixabay.