Parlays Are Bad For Your Brain: The Near-Miss Effect

Parlay bets are the cash cow for the sports betting app industry. Gamblers lose more on parlays than any other wager type, and so betting firms heavily promote these bets.

These massive losses are primarily due to the especially poor odds offered on parlays, but these types of bets are also highly addictive. Parlays are often compared to the lottery due to the low chances of winning, but they are similar to slot machines in one crucial way.

Parlay bets usually provide a gambler with the risky experience of a so-called near miss. Let’s explain how these wagers encourage continued play and problem gambling tendencies.

Near Miss vs. Clear Miss in Gambling

When gambling, sometimes a losing outcome can appear close to a winning outcome. With slot machines, you might match several of the symbols required for a jackpot but miss the others.

Near misses can be very unpleasant, and a 2009 study from the University of Cambridge shed light on the brain activity behind these experiences.

Meanwhile, clear misses (losing outcomes that didn’t appear to be close to winning) feel less unpleasant and tend to be easier to walk away from.

“As a consequence of near-misses, the gambler may feel that he is ‘not constantly losing but constantly nearly winning’ … In many gambling games, however, winning outcomes are chance events and near-misses are not predictive of winning, and so it would be misleading to assign value to near-misses,” said the Cambridge study.

People have difficulty evaluating the reality of near-miss outcomes.

“Humans are often deficient at processing chance events,” said the study, “and it is conceivable that gambling games may harness a reinforcement learning system that evolved to handle skill-oriented behaviors.”

The loss of money is the same whether it’s a near or clear miss, but the former makes it harder for many bettors to quit until they finally win. Chasing a big win can develop into a compulsion.

Let’s explain how all of this applies to parlay bets.

Parlays Usually Have Winning Legs

In short, a parlay combines separate sports outcomes into one wager, with each individual outcome commonly known as a so-called leg. All the legs must win for the parlay to win.

For example, you could make a parlay involving three MLB teams all winning their respective games in a single evening. If one of the teams loses, the entire parlay loses.

The odds become longer by combining these bets into a parlay, so a gambler stands to win more than betting the same amount on each game individually.

The catch is that the parlay odds are far lower than what the odds should be for the three independent events happening more or less concurrently.

Parlay bets can involve many legs, with the individual sports betting app deciding the limit. In most sports betting states, a gambler can’t win more than $1 million on a parlay.

Like a slot machine, some of the parlay legs will prove successful, with the entire wager losing because of unsuccessful legs. Sometimes a large parlay is lost because of only one leg.

Near misses in parlays lead many sports gamblers to continue building and betting parlays in hopes of the big win. This problematic behavior can then be reinforced by chasing losses.

Chasing losses is often an early sign of a sports betting addiction.

Why to Avoid Parlays

In summary, it’s important to avoid all forms of parlay wagers, including so-called same-game parlays (a wager composed of legs from a single event).

Here’s why you should stay away from these wagers:

• Parlays odds are poor for the player

• Parlays can offer big jackpots but rarely hit

• Parlays elicit the near-miss effect

Because parlays generate so much money for sports betting apps, such as Bet365, FanDuel and DraftKings, these companies often promote parlays through push notifications, which can reinforce problematic play. A common push notification is to bet a pre-made parlay.

Abstaining from parlays is one way to prevent a sports betting addiction.

If you are struggling with a sports betting addiction, consider these tips to quit gambling.

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