So-called “prediction” betting websites Kalshi and Polymarket often offer markets on high-profile criminal cases, including arrests and indictments.
But one unfolding scandal is entirely missing from their respective platforms.
On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Justice indicted several people in and around the NBA for involvement in alleged “insider” gambling. The government said the case is far from over and more arrests could follow.
The NBA could hand down lifetime bans to the people involved.
At the time of writing, there was nothing on Polymarket or Kalshi (though there are odds on at least one offshore sportsbook) related to the scandal that engulfed the sports world over the past several days.
Polymarket had a market with the title “Another NBA player or coach arrested for illegal gambling” — but it’s no longer on the platform. It’s unclear exactly when the gambling market was deleted.
The reason for the lack of betting markets seems obvious.
NBA Partnership?
Just a day before the NBA-related indictments, Polymarket and Kalshi announced partnerships with the National Hockey League.
The NHL was the first major sports league to give the nascent and controversial betting websites the legitimacy of a partnership. The companies want more league-level partnerships.
There’s been no reporting to confirm they’ve had discussions with the NBA regarding a potential deal. However, one would imagine that gambling markets on the NBA-related indictments would not be looked upon favorably by the league.
The NBA is currently in a PR crisis.
Why It Matters
Does any of this really matter? There’s an argument to be made that it does.
The prediction betting companies have repeatedly claimed to be more trustworthy than traditional news outlets.
Often, they shout “BREAKING” in all caps from their respective social media feeds as if they were a traditional news outlet. Polymarket even has a “breaking news” tab on its platform.
OK, so they aren’t really news platforms — so who cares?
Well, there are potential political implications. If someone or some entity curries favor in the future with a “prediction” platform, can they avoid seeing a betting market related to the crisis they’re dealing with?
If prediction markets are just gambling sites, then it’s OK if certain topics are off limits. It’s their decision to avoid them. But if they want to be the news, then certain omissions could be concerning.
Image by tookapic from Pixabay
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