Why Does ‘Prediction Market’ Polymarket Take Bets On War?

The so-called “prediction market” betting platform Polymarket has been slammed this week for a social media post using an ethnic slur against Indian people.

The post came in response to a recent X/Twitter update that revealed the location of user accounts. Apparently, some of the accounts promoting Polymarket were based in countries other than those listed on their profiles.

Polymarket’s deleted post was highlighted by Sheel Mohnot, co-founder of San Francisco-based Better Tomorrow Ventures, among other observers.

“It’s something to note as anti-Indian sentiment is quite high,” Mohnot said on X.

The slur is especially eyebrow-raising considering that Polymarket has at least five betting markets related to the possibility of war between India and Pakistan. One of them involves an airstrike.

The response to Polymarket’s use of an ethnic slur ranged from accusing the company — valued at north of $12 billion — of outright racism and bigotry to the interpretation that it was ignorance.

As an isolated incident, the deleted post might be forgettable. However, the platform’s markets on war and death underscore the danger of divisive politics.

‘Drug Boat’ Markets

In addition to the India-Pakistan war markets, Polymarket allows users to place bets on U.S. airstrikes on alleged “drug boats” off the coast of Venezuela in the Caribbean. Notably, Polymarket doesn’t use language to note that the boats are suspected of carrying drugs. The market states plainly that they are drug boats. The U.S. airstrikes on the boats have received international condemnation, including from the United Kingdom.

The platform also facilitates peer-to-peer bets on whether Russia will strike NATO members and capture specific Ukrainian territory. There are dozens of other war-related markets, many of which involve the Middle East.

Is Polymarket simply a business trying to generate attention and grow its user base? That’s a generous reading, as the company said it wants to be a source of news and truth in the world.

In a disclaimer on some of its war markets, Polymarket stated: “After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and X could not.”

It’s very much unclear what those crucial answers may be.

U.S. Civil War Market

Regarding U.S. domestic tensions, Polymarket facilitates bets on whether there will be another “Civil War.” Notably, the market’s “yes” price spiked following the gruesome murder of Charlie Kirk in September.

As a betting platform, Polymarket doesn’t appear to have a coherent political ideology per se. But it promotes divisive language and divisive betting markets.

If fascism, wherever it exists in the world, can be partly defined by war and hate, then Polymarket does not seem to have much of a problem with it.

Polymarket would be far from the only company using an unraveling world to its advantage. Nonetheless, it is not the kind of company you want to get your news from or place bets on.

As of writing, Polymarket was inching closer to launching a U.S.-facing platform under federal regulation. It’s unclear if the war markets will be formally available to users betting inside the U.S.

Update: Following the publication of this article, Polymarket’s Chief Legal Officer Neal Kumar released a statement:

“The post earlier this week from an unofficial Company account was unacceptable, and we take full responsibility. As an Indian American, looking up the history of the term sucked. I’ve always found engagement to be far more effective than rage, and believe this came from a place of misunderstanding, not hate. Uncomfortable conversations to understand each other is a practice to live and breathe, and we had one here this week to make us stronger. We apologize for the pain and we are committed to doing better.”

The account in question is an official affiliate of Polymarket.