A new national poll finds most Americans view prediction markets as gambling, not investing, and don’t see societal benefits.

Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket claim that they’re so-called truth machines, allowing society to benefit from probabilities on future events, including sports.

The poll comes as problem gambling rates rise in the U.S. and government-sanctioned online gambling erodes household finances.

The big picture

A new poll from the American Institute for Boys and Men and Ipsos shows most Americans don’t know about prediction markets, and those who do see them as financially risky.

Most Americans support regulating prediction markets like online gambling and reject leaving them unregulated.

Numerous states have sued prediction markets over allegedly illegal sports gambling. In Arizona, authorities filed criminal charges against Kalshi.

By the numbers

• Only 21% of Americans said they were at least somewhat familiar with prediction markets.
• Familiarity among young men ages 18 to 24 was higher at 29%, but it was still a minority.
• Actual use was rarer: 3% of Americans and 8% of young men reported using a prediction market recently.

Prediction markets seen as risky

• Of those familiar with prediction markets, 91% consider them financially risky. This view aligns with concerns about cryptocurrency and surpasses those for sports betting.
• That matched the share who said the same about cryptocurrency investing and exceeded the 88% who said sports betting is financially risky.
• This weakens industry claims that prediction markets differ from gambling.

Closer to gambling than investing

A clear majority of Americans (61%) view event contracts on prediction markets as closer to gambling, compared to just 8% who see them as closer to investing.

Among men ages 18 to 24, the divide was also clear: 47% saw prediction markets as gambling, while just 10% saw them as investing. Even in this more familiar group, the tilt toward a gambling perception dominates.

Despite less decisive views among young men, prediction markets are still seen mainly as gambling.

For comparison, Americans view sportsbook wagers as gambling by a 84% to 1% margin, and daily fantasy entries as gambling by an 82% to 2% margin.

In 2025, Americans spent a record $27 billion on government-sanctioned online gambling.

Few think they are good for society

Few respondents regarded prediction markets as beneficial to society.

Just 4% of Americans and 7% of men ages 18 to 24 said prediction markets are socially beneficial.

These low numbers closely resemble attitudes toward gambling in general and online sports betting, both of which also received low marks, despite their perceived negative impact.

Meanwhile, 38% of Americans said prediction markets are bad for society. Another 34% said they are neither good nor bad.

Among young men, 30% said prediction markets are bad for society, while 36% said they are neither good nor bad.

Addiction, whether it be to prediction market gambling or trading, carries significant suicide risk.

Concerns about fairness and insider information

The poll also found Americans doubt these platforms can stop unfair advantages, such as with mention markets.

Only 9% of Americans said they were confident that prediction markets could prevent people with insider information from profiting unfairly.

By contrast, 61% said they were not confident, while 28% said they were unsure.

This skepticism creates a trust problem for an industry that promotes itself as transparent and information-driven.

Appetite for regulation

A majority of Americans and young men believe prediction markets should be regulated like online gambling.

That view was held by 59% of Americans and 58% of men ages 18 to 24.

Slightly smaller but still substantial shares also said prediction markets should be regulated like financial investing — 52% of Americans and 48% of young men.

What stood out most, however, was the lack of support for a hands-off approach. Fully 66% of Americans and 60% of men ages 18 to 24 said having no regulation at all would be a bad idea.

Prediction markets offer betting in states such as California, where sports betting isn’t regulated.

About the prediction market gambling poll

The survey was conducted by Ipsos from Feb. 27 through March 1, 2026, using its probability-based KnowledgePanel.

It was based on a nationally representative sample of 2,363 adults ages 18 and older, including an oversample of 447 men ages 18 to 24.

The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 2.2 percentage points for the full sample at the 95% confidence level.

Bottom line: Prediction markets & gambling

Prediction market companies have promoted themselves as sophisticated alternatives to gambling, but public opinion disagrees.

Most Americans see these products as risky and more like gambling than investing.