How Many Gamblers Quit Before Winning Big?

Many people gamble in search of a “big win” or jackpot.

If you are a sports bettor who frequently bets parlays, you might wonder how long it will take for one of the long-shot parlays to hit. You might be frustrated that you lose parlay after parlay.

If you’re thinking of quitting but keep gambling because you expect a big win to be just around the corner, that’s a warning sign. It might be time to abstain from gambling.

Yes, the big win could come—but in this article we’ll explain why seeking it is a dangerous mindset and could harm you. 

Gambler’s Fallacy

Wins will come, and maybe you’ll score a large payout, but you should never fall victim to the gambler’s fallacy. Doing so could set you up for problem gambling.

Many gamblers believe that past events affect future outcomes in games of chance, like sports betting, poker, blackjack, slots and more. 

This can lead people to continue gambling longer than they intended, hoping for a big win. This can also lead to the dangerous behavior of chasing losses.

If you bet long enough, a win will likely come. But ask yourself these questions:

• Would the money be enough to get you out of the hole? 
• Would you feel satisfied after all the time invested to break even? 
• Would you give all of that big win back to the sportsbook or casino because you’re now compulsively betting?
• What are the underlying reasons for your gambling?

Big Wins Are Future Losses

For people with a gambling problem, a so-called big win is just money to lose in the future. 

Money isn’t the reason for gambling. People struggling with a betting addiction are using the activity to deal with other issues, often an underlying mental illness.

Big wins are irrelevant because they can’t stop betting, and the house wins in the long run.

Here’s one example of a gambling boss admitting that big winners don’t quit.

Former Las Vegas casino executive Steve Wynn, who founded Wynn Resorts, told 60 Minutes in 2011 that in his decades-long career he never saw one gambler quit after a big jackpot.

The interviewer for 60 Minutes asked Wynn: “Have you ever known, in your entire life, a gambler who comes here and wins big and walks away?”

“Never,” Wynn replied.

Gambler’s Ruin

Gambler’s ruin is often confused with the gambler’s fallacy, but it’s actually a mathematical principle.

Gambling ruin here refers to a mathematical concept describing the likelihood of a gambler eventually losing all their money if they continue betting.

If a gambler with limited funds keeps playing against a casino or sportsbook with virtually infinite funds, the gambler will almost certainly go broke eventually. 

This will happen even if the game is fair (50-50 odds). The longer the gambler plays, the higher the probability of eventual financial ruin.

Consistent gambling, even on “fair” bets, is unsustainable without infinite resources.

One Reddit poster aptly described a situation related to gambler’s ruin: 

“A friend of mine got his bank balance up to $90,000 from poker when we were teens, went on tilt and lost the lot. Whenever anyone hears it they say, ‘oh you should have stopped at xx.’ But if you’d said he lost $10,000 or $20,000, they’d say stop there.”

“You can’t possibly know where you should have stopped until you’ve lost it all,” they added.

Do 99% of Gamblers Quit Before a Big Win?

This specific question is a common one because many people believe that if they continue to gamble a so-called big win will come and erase previous losses.

There’s even a shirt for sale on Amazon with the words, “99% of gamblers quit before hitting it big.” Underneath the phrase is an image of a stack of poker chips.

This is apparently a popular meme. Don’t buy that shirt.

To answer the question seriously: Many gamblers do quit before they win big, as they should.

Sometimes, it can be taking a break from betting and returning with a clear mindset. Sometimes it can mean abstaining from gambling because it’s an activity with virtually no positive outcomes.

In the end, quitting before a big gambling win isn’t a failure. It’s often the smartest move a gambler can make. Recognizing when to stop is a success and sign of strength, not weakness.

Image by Mohamed Hassan from Pixabay.