Wagering on the extent of human suffering?
A market on the popular platform Kalshi allows users to essentially bet on how many millions of Americans would lose healthcare because of the Republican-backed reconciliation bill.
As of July 2, the massive and controversial legislative package was pending in Congress.
The Kalshi healthcare gambling market rules:
“If at least 11 million lose healthcare coverage as a result of the passage of the next budget reconciliation law before Jan 1, 2026, as estimated by the Congressional Budget Office, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, and Politico.”
The market, created in early June, had a low trading volume of $3,000 as of early July.
In other words, not many people wanted to gamble on it.
The theory behind the value of so-called prediction platforms is that they provide better information than polls and could serve as an aggregate of data from official sources on a particular topic.
The Kalshi healthcare market estimates that 12.5 million Americans will lose healthcare. The current “Yes” price implies market consensus is around that level, but it’s not a formal prediction.
Where’s the Value from Kalshi?
But with very low trading volume, this healthcare-loss market provides negligible insight.
With such a low number of participants, the market is unlikely to offer meaningful predictive value beyond general news sentiment.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour has described so-called prediction markets as a “critical innovation of the 21st century.”
The company has argued that its product isn’t gambling under U.S. laws.
Is it immoral to bet on how many Americans will lose healthcare? Moralist arguments aren’t something we’re interested in making here.
That said, the Kalshi healthcare market isn’t a great look when it provides no informational value.
At this stage, it’s hard to argue the market is anything more than speculative gambling.
Kalshi expanded into sports‑related event contracts in early 2025. Seven states — including Nevada, New Jersey, Maryland — issued cease-and-desist orders, asserting illegal sports betting under state gambling laws.
Later in 2025, Massachusetts sued Kalshi asserting illegal betting.
Related: Kalshi NBA Finals Billboard Ad Raises Problem Gambling Concerns
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