The Kentucky Derby owner has warned prediction markets not to take bets on May’s race.

In an earnings call on Thursday, Churchill Downs CEO Bill Carstanjen said that his company has not given any prediction market permission to facilitate gambling on the Kentucky Derby. In 2025, Polymarket, a leading prediction market, had around $1.2 million in volume on the race.

The platform has controversially taken bets on events such as a crewed NASA mission experiencing an explosion and the hunt for mass shooting suspects.

Donald Trump Jr., the son of the sitting U.S. president, has a financial interest in Polymarket.

Federal Law Protects the Kentucky Derby

According to Carstanjen, federal law prohibits a prediction market from offering bets.

“Pari-mutuel wagering on horse racing is conducted under the Interstate Horseracing Act, which is a federal umbrella statute that essentially gives us a series of rights — call them intellectual property rights — in our content,” Carstanjen told analysts when asked about the Kentucky Derby.

“To take wagers across any forum, whether it be a sports wagering platform, another horse racing platform, or a prediction markets platform, you need our express consent. You can’t just do it without that. We haven’t agreed to provide our content to prediction markets.”

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulates prediction markets.

Sports Betting King for Prediction Markets

With the exception of the Kentucky Derby, prediction markets facilitate gambling on sports, including the Olympics, Super Bowl, and March Madness. But numerous states say it’s illegal sports gambling.

Using official league trademarks is prohibited unless they get approval.

Polymarket and Kalshi forged a deal with the NHL that permits trademark use.

During the NFL season, around 90% of volume on Kalshi came from sports betting.

The Kentucky Derby is horse racing’s signature event. Churchill Downs said in 2025 that the race saw a record $234.4 million in bets, up from $210.7 million in 2024.