How Olympics Betting Can Be More Harmful For Some

One root cause of gambling problems is believing that betting leads to winnings. Betting on the Olympics can carry an added risk of overconfidence.

The Olympics feature countless niche sports, which can make the weeks-long festival enjoyable to watch. The Olympics’ charm is giving a platform to obscure sports and athletes from all over the globe.

Some viewers believe they’re an expert on a niche event. Maybe you’ve played the sport and think it gives you some insights. Or maybe you’re a diehard fan even in non-Olympic years, and you don’t know anyone who knows more about it than you do.

Overconfidence can increase your risk when betting on the Olympics, potentially leading to harmful outcomes. This article will cover what you need to know if you are considering a wager on the 2026 Winter Olympics.

Olympics Betting at Traditional Sportsbooks

At a house-banked sports betting app—such as DraftKings or FanDuel if you’re in the U.S.—the Olympics betting odds come with a built-in operator advantage. 

There’s a fee included in the odds for every bet, so over time, betting on any sport is likely to result in losses.

Let’s say you figure out how to bet on the Olympics in a way to reduce the sportsbook’s price advantage. For example, you watch Olympics-related news like a hawk and beat the odds movement for a particular betting market.

Consequently, the betting app will likely flag your betting account, and your wagers on the Olympics may be declined, or the maximum size of your bets may be limited to a small fraction of what you wanted to wager. 

In other words, the sportsbook has deemed you an undesirable bettor on the Olympics.

For these reasons, you’re unlikely to make money betting on the Olympics using a traditional sportsbook app or website, regardless of your expertise in the niche sport.

Olympics Betting at Prediction Markets

So-called prediction markets are another way to bet on the Olympics, and these stock-market-style sports betting platforms have similar risks with some caveats.

You can use a prediction market, such as Kalshi or Polymarket, just as you would a traditional sportsbook. This involves placing a bet on an Olympic sport and waiting for the market to resolve, either to collect your money or to realize your loss. 

User reports indicate that prediction markets are generally no better priced than conventional sportsbooks.

For prediction markets, the key product differentiation is the ability to buy and sell so-called contracts. In other words, you don’t need to wait until the curling match is over before exiting your bet (either at profit or a loss).

This may appear to give you more control and boost your chances of winning money. Prediction markets sometimes advertise “trading” as a reliable way to make money. That’s not the case.

First off, prediction markets have insiders because they are not sufficiently regulated against insider trading. While they hold Commodity Futures Trading Commission registration, there is no government watchdog for insider sports trading. This means you could be trading on the Olympics against people with inside knowledge, such as friends or family members of athletes, coaches, and training staff. Betting against insiders in peer-to-peer markets almost always leads to losing money.

Secondly, prediction markets generally have significant fees on your profit. One study on Kalshi found that the average return across all contracts is minus 22%.

Olympics Overconfidence

Overall, no matter the depth of your knowledge, you are likely to lose money betting on the Olympics.

That said, it is possible to use that knowledge to lose more slowly than someone without any insights into the specific sport. Not all sports bettors lose at the same rate.

The problem here is the intermittent reinforcement associated with forms of gambling that involve a strategic component, like sports betting and poker. The fundamental nature of the activity is gambling and luck, but some strategies can help you stay in the game longer.

Dr. Rani Hoff, Emeritus Professor of Psychiatry at the Yale School of Medicine, told GamblingHarm.org in an interview that gambling games with a strategic component can be more addictive.

“If you know what you’re doing, you get that intermittent reinforcement more frequently,” Dr. Hoff explained. “In poker, for example, you win more if you know what you’re doing. Intermittent reinforcement is the most powerful reinforcer for any living organism, for humans particularly.”

Losing more slowly can create more wins and near-wins, producing stronger reinforcement and a greater likelihood of chasing losses.

Bottom Line: Olympics Betting with Caution

GamblingHarm.org warns against using addictive products like sports betting apps and prediction markets, as these are deliberately designed by developers to maximize habit-forming behaviors.

Consider whether you can avoid harm before using these platforms, as problems may develop over time even if you feel in control now.

If you decide to bet on the Olympics, regularly assess your feelings and actions. Set clear limits. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose and quit at the first sign of discomfort. There are many gambling replacements if you’re looking for a hobby.

An alternative to these products is making friendly wagers with friends, which don’t have to involve money.

If you’re in the U.S. and concerned about your betting, call 1-800-GAMBLER now for support.