- According to Citizens JMP (Citizens Bank), so-called “prediction market” betting apps saw 3.57 million downloads through Week 14 of the NFL season.
- This compares with 12.98 million for traditional, state-regulated online betting apps (sports + casino).
- Fantasy/DFS betting apps, which some states regulate, saw 7.54 million downloads.
- Week 14 data showed that prediction markets are closing the downloads gap.
Those figures are downloads since Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season, not total lifetime downloads.
Bigger Picture on App Data
Prediction markets, which are yes-or-no, stock-market-style sports betting, join a crowded online gambling landscape in the U.S.
Mobile sports betting has been sanctioned in parts of the U.S. since 2018. In 2024, legal sportsbooks in the U.S. took in $13.7 billion from bettors.
There is also a large but undefined offshore, illegal online sports betting market, alongside dual-currency sweepstakes-style platforms that some states (e.g., California, New Jersey, and New York) have banned.
So-called “social” sportsbooks, which don’t award real-money prizes but still accept payments for gambling-style games, are also widely used in the U.S.
In summary, forms of online sports betting include:
- traditional house-banked
- peer-to-peer fantasy/DFS
- peer-to-peer “prediction”
- “sweepstakes” dual currency
- “social” and quasi “free-to-play”
All can cause immense harm to users through financial loss and addiction.
Prediction Market Threat?
Controversially, prediction markets offer gambling in states without legal online sports betting, such as California, Georgia, Nebraska, and Texas. Many states have seen online sports betting bills stall in recent years.
Numerous states with online sports betting, such as New York and Massachusetts, are seeking to block these platforms from operating within their borders.
Kalshi is currently the dominant prediction market betting site, but that could soon change with forthcoming products from Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel, and others. Fanatics launched its prediction market platform in early December.
While traditional betting apps have the bulk of new downloads, prediction markets are rapidly catching up. Under CFTC authority, prediction markets began taking sports bets in 2025.
No new state legalized online sports betting in 2025. Missouri authorized the launch of licensed betting apps (e.g., DraftKings, FanDuel) in December following a 2024 law change.
So far, prediction markets give gambling firms access to an estimated 40% of the U.S. population that has no at-home access to state-sanctioned online sports betting.
The stakes are high, with the legality of the product causing a rift between DraftKings and FanDuel and the American Gaming Association, the casino industry’s top lobbying group. The betting firms suddenly left the AGA in November.
Why Prediction Apps Are Becoming So Popular
Prediction markets benefit from what appears to be a stamp of approval from the federal government, although the CFTC hasn’t said it ruled one way or the other on sports “contracts.”
This legal loophole has led Kalshi, for example, to aggressively advertise its product as a legal form of sports betting in all 50 states.
Prediction markets have a massive advantage over offshore and sweepstakes sportsbooks, which lack government approval.
The platforms have quickly become the top threat to traditional, house-banked sports betting platforms. DraftKings has seen its share price struggle mightily in 2025 for several reasons, with prediction markets being a top factor.
“We will pursue this [predictions] opportunity, we will compete, and we will win,” DraftKings CEO Jason Robins told shareholders in November.
While Fanatics, DraftKings, and FanDuel are all in on prediction markets in states without legal sports betting, operators such as BetMGM and Caesars are playing it safer — at least until the courts weigh in on whether prediction market sportsbooks are actually legal.
Prediction Market Addiction Help
The growing popularity of prediction markets will cause more people to be exposed to sports gambling addiction. If you need immediate assistance, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
You are not alone if you’ve developed an addiction to sports betting, including the nascent “prediction market” form. You should consider talking to a therapist or counselor for help quitting gambling.
A gambling prevention or recovery coach could also help you or someone you know. Studies have shown that half of online bettors experience problems with their play.
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