In prediction markets—federally approved betting platforms—the conflicts of interest are blatant. Some may call it run-of-the-mill, in-your-face corruption.
Much of the investigative journalism on these platforms is quickly becoming moot. Sure, it can be interesting and useful to learn the sordid details on how these new betting sites operate and the scandalous activity of the latest insider betting controversy, especially when it involves elections and war — but the big picture doesn’t involve scoops.
Serving the President
The chairman of the CFTC says on his social media page that he serves President Donald Trump. It’s literally his bio. I know this is not unusual for a federal official appointed by a president, but it’s striking given the president’s business ties to the fledgling sector.
The president’s media company plans to launch a prediction market called Truth Predict. The president’s son has an investment firm that took a stake in Polymarket, which appears to be the world’s largest prediction market by market value. Donald Trump Jr. is also an advisor to Kalshi, the current U.S. leader in the space by trading volume.
On Tuesday, CFTC Chairman Mike Selig posted a video on social media stating the agency will aggressively defend prediction-market sports betting against an “onslaught” of state lawsuits. At his confirmation hearing in 2025, he said he would let courts decide whether stock-market-style sports betting is legal. His flip-flop is hardly surprising.
Right now, sport “event contracts” are the revenue engine for U.S. prediction markets.
What More is There to Say?
I love journalism and reporters. So, as a journalist, I hate to suggest that hard-nosed, investigative reporting is less important for prediction markets. For the big picture, I’m not sure what remains to be uncovered. The money trail is public.
I’m not drawn to potential exposés on the deals brokered between the Trump family and the prediction market sector. I’m not particularly interested in reading about the shakeups and chaos inside the CFTC. Ruling class palace intrigue often bores me, even when it’s related to my beat. I’m pretty jaded.
What concerns me most is the addiction that prediction markets will cause, both through sports and their countless other betting markets. A typical problem gambler harms six other people, according to one study. For me, that’s the real scandal worth reporting. It’s the journalism that can make a life-or-death impact by getting the word out that people should avoid these “trading” platforms or exercise extreme caution when using them.
Half of online bettors chase losses, but I still see some addiction experts only willing to talk about clinical rates. The debate around problematic use of prediction markets will be at least as muddled.
Prediction markets causing addiction is quite obvious, at least for me, but it’s the main story I want to tell. I think more journalists should cover this, or make it part of their coverage.
I know addiction and financial harm to everyday working people probably won’t fuel a seedy crime thriller on prediction markets. In an era of unrelenting waves of journalism layoffs, writers and other content creators have to grab society’s receding attention span. Prediction markets are in many ways a symptom of the times.