Truth Social, Donald Trump’s social media platform, was beta testing a prediction market product as of March 2026.
“There is significant uncertainty regarding user adoption, engagement, and platform integration through distribution partners … as well as the scalability of our business model,” the company said in an SEC filing, casting some doubt on whether the product would be released.
‘Truth Predict’ Announcement
On Oct. 28, 2025, Trump Media and Technology Group Corp., the operator of Truth Social, announced its plans to offer stock-market-style betting to users. The company called the product Truth Predict.
In the U.S., prediction markets are a nascent form of online betting where users can trade contracts on real-life outcomes in sports, politics, and more.
Prediction markets have analogues to moneylines, spreads, over/unders, props, and parlays.
Like traditional sports betting, this form of betting carries risks for problem gambling and harm. Prediction markets are available to users at 18, who would be underage gamblers in most states.
Trump Media also announced a rewards program and virtual currency for the prediction market.
“Truth Social and Truth+ users who have ‘Truth gems’ … will be able to convert their gems into the Cronos (CRO) digital currency and apply them to purchases of Truth Predict contracts,” the announcement said.
Partnership with Crypto.com
Crypto.com, which has a prediction market registration with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), would power Truth Predict.
Under the CFTC, prediction markets offer sports betting outside state regulation. Numerous states have challenged what they call illegal sports gambling.
Just days before the Truth Predict announcement, New York sent a cease-and-desist letter to Kalshi, one of the largest prediction markets.
The legality of prediction markets could reach the Supreme Court.
What Would ‘Truth Predict’ Offer?
Truth Social users would be able to trade contracts related to:
- Events across all major sports leagues
- Political elections
- Pop culture/entertainment events
- Interest and inflation rate changes
- Commodity prices for gold and crude oil
“Prices will update in real-time, allowing users to react instantly to developments in major current events,” the announcement said.
What the Companies Said
Devin Nunes, Chairman and CEO of Trump Media:
“We are thrilled to become the world’s first publicly traded social media platform to offer our users access to prediction markets. Truth Predict will enable our loyal users to engage in prediction markets with a trusted network while harnessing our social media platform to provide totally unique ways for users to discuss and compare their predictions.
Kris Marszalek, Co-Founder and CEO of Crypto.com:
“Prediction markets are poised to be a multi-deca-billion dollar industry. Crypto.com has quickly become one of the most trusted providers of prediction market services, and we’re thrilled to combine with Truth Social to support the world’s first prediction markets available from a social media platform. This aligns perfectly with what users look for in social media – a community to engage with and seek truth.”
What’s Next for ‘Truth Predict’
In its 2025 announcement, the company said a full U.S. launch would follow beta testing. According to the SEC filing in February 2026, the company is still evaluating whether the prediction market is economically feasible.
Truth Predict could have an uphill battle competing against prediction market rivals such as Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, DraftKings, and FanDuel.
Donald Trump Jr., a Trump Media director, is also a Kalshi advisor and Polymarket investor.
The Truth Predict press release did not mention casino games like roulette, poker, or blackjack. So far, no U.S. prediction market platform has offered casino games.
