Is the NFL rigged to the benefit of gambling interests?
On a league-wide level, certainly not. However, the NFL’s deal to receive a stake in ESPN looks ominous for the growth of fan suspicion.
In August 2025, the NFL announced that ESPN would acquire the NFL Network and certain other media assets owned and controlled by the NFL — including the NFL’s linear RedZone Channel and NFL Fantasy.
In exchange, the NFL gets a 10% equity stake in the Disney-owned ESPN.
The announcement raised eyebrows in the sports world. Let’s dig into why.
NFL & ESPN Blurring the Lines
In a separate deal, ESPN licenses its brand to ESPN Bet, an online sportsbook owned and operated by casino developer Penn Entertainment. Previously, Penn had branded its app as Barstool Sportsbook.
In that 10-year deal, ESPN has the option to purchase at least $500 million of Penn stock. As of August, ESPN did not hold an ownership stake in ESPN Bet.
Penn agreed to pay ESPN $1.5 billion in cash over 10 years for use of the brand. Still, ESPN is incentivized to help the betting app gain market share. That’s partly why it was so scandalous when anchor Rece Davis told viewers in 2024 that sports gambling is like investing.
It’s possible ESPN Bet rebrands if the ESPN-Penn partnership ends prematurely under an opt-out clause, as some industry observers have speculated. ESPN Bet has struggled to make a meaningful dent in the market share of industry leaders FanDuel and DraftKings.
For now, the two partners will seek to grow ESPN Bet during the 2025-26 NFL season.
Still, some NFL fans expressed bewilderment online. The league will own part of a company (ESPN) that could soon own part of a sportsbook operator (Penn).
NFL Gambling Conspiracy Theory Data
The 10% stake in ESPN inches the NFL even closer to the gambling industry in an era of already high mistrust.
Here’s what we know about NFL fans’ beliefs that the game is rigged:
- A 2016 Seton Hall survey found that over half of Americans think NFL games could be rigged—the highest percentage for all major American sports.
- A 2023 NJ.Bet survey found that 1-in-5 NFL fans think the sport is rigged.
- A 2024 News Literacy in America survey found that nearly half of teens express belief in the conspiracy theory that the NFL playoffs and Super Bowl are rigged.
Yes, but: There was research in 2022 showing that, in general, belief in conspiracy theories has actually remained flat in recent years—despite more attention to them.
Still, specific conspiracy theories, like the idea that the NFL is rigged at the highest levels, may experience significant growth in popularity depending on new developments.
Will the ESPN-NFL deal trigger more conspiracy theory?
Fear of Rigged NFL Games Enters Mainstream
Gambling on the NFL has existed since its inception. It’s clear that the league does better when star players or big-market franchises perform well.
Conspiracy theories around the on-field product have existed for generations. But is it going more mainstream than before due to the legal sports gambling industry?
It didn’t take long for the NFL to change its tune on sports betting. The NFL quickly grabbed a piece of the legal market following a 2018 Supreme Court ruling that struck down a federal prohibition (Nevada had an exemption).
In 2024, state-sanctioned sportsbooks in the U.S. won $13.7 billion from gamblers.
With a nearly 9% stake, the league is the largest shareholder in Genius Sports, which provides data to the sports betting industry. The league’s franchises have also struck licensing and marketing deals with the gambling industry.
In 2021, the NFL announced business partnerships with Caesars, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
Yet, the NFL’s deal to acquire a large chunk of ESPN, a sports media powerhouse with a financial interest in a sportsbook, has upped the ante for many fans.
Joon Lee, a former ESPN journalist, told Gambling Harm that the conspiracy theory of NFL games being rigged to the benefit of gambling interests “has always lingered on the edges of fandom, but the [ESPN] deal brings it to center.”
“When the NFL owns a piece of ESPN, and ESPN profits the bigger its sportsbook gets, the lines between journalism, entertainment, and gambling get dangerously blurred,” he said. “Whether games are rigged or not almost becomes irrelevant. If fans believe they are, the trust that makes sports special starts to erode.”
The NFL is ‘Definitely Scripted Now’
Spot-fixing is a serious concern for the NFL and other leagues, but could there really be gambling-related corruption at the highest echelons of the NFL?
Sports betting is big business, and ESPN Bet could be a lucrative product. However, consider that the NFL brought in more than $23 billion in total revenue in the most recent fiscal year.
The league is not going to orchestrate match-fixing so ESPN Bet might gain a slightly larger piece of the highly competitive $13.7 billion sports betting market. And what about the league’s other sportsbook partners?
Even though it makes no sense for the NFL to rig games, many outspoken fans appear convinced that the ESPN-NFL deal involves something nefarious.
Let’s see some social media comments on the NFL-ESPN deal announcement.
- “Never going to escape the rigging allegations.”
- “Get ready for more blown calls from the refs and games swayed one way.”
- “The NFL has been shaving points as a business practice right out in public ever since sports betting was legalized. The refs aren’t inexplicably getting worse.”
- “It’s definitely scripted now.”
- “They already rig the games how they want. Now it’s just more obvious.”
- “It’s all WWE now.”
Are NFL Refs Allowed to Bet on Games?
Absolutely not. NFL referees are prohibited from wagering on any NFL games, and that includes the NFL preseason. Additionally, refs can not bet on the NFL Draft, the NFL Pro Bowl, or the NFL Combine. It doesn’t matter whether the ref is working the event or not.
Betting on an NFL event would cause job loss. There could be criminal charges if the league found evidence that a ref had corruptly influenced the outcome.
There has been no high-profile NFL referee betting scandal to date. In the NBA, the league was rocked by a scandal in the 2000s involving former ref Tim Donaghy. He was sentenced to prison in 2008 for betting on NBA games and corruptly influencing their outcomes.
Rise of ‘Prediction’ Betting Sites
The recent emergence of Kalshi and Polymarket on the NFL gambling stage raises red flags for several reasons. So-called prediction-style sports gambling opens up a new can of worms when it comes to game integrity.
- They are regulated by the CFTC, which provides weak oversight compared to states.
- Active NFL players invest in them, like Saquon Barkley‘s stake in Polymarket.
- Kalshi and Polymarket operate internationally.
Bottom line here: It’s even harder to monitor insider trading and potential match-fixing on Kalshi and Polymarket.
What’s Next for the NFL’s Reputation?
In American life, the NFL is an institution. However, distrust of institutions, whether public or private, is remarkably high in the 2020s.
According to Pew Research, just 16% of Americans in 2023 said they trusted the federal government to do the right thing at least some of the time.
Aside from gambling, the NFL suffered a reputational blow because of its CTE cover-up. The league has mostly brushed it off. Nonetheless, fewer American kids are playing tackle football than in prior generations, according to The Washington Post.
To make matters more complicated, most people in the U.S. are suspicious of NFL game integrity for whatever reason—be it for gambling or ratings.
In the absence of a major NFL sports betting scandal (there still hasn’t been one that we know of), the new NFL-ESPN deal on its own might not significantly increase conspiratorial thinking from already high levels.
NFL Gambling Addiction is Bigger ‘Rigged’ Scandal
The NFL is unequivocally “rigged” when it comes to problem gambling.
What do we mean by rigged here? The NFL commands significant emotional investment from fans, and gambling on it through addictive products like apps leads many people to addiction.
Over 50% of sports bettors have chased losses, with problem gambling rates on the NFL potentially higher than sports betting more broadly.
NFL betting carries huge risks of gambling harm. More Americans than ever see sports betting as bad for society.
The research firm Optimove found in 2024 that roughly 66% of NFL bettors admitted to wagering more than they could afford or wanted to lose, up from 45% in 2023.
The game—in this case, betting—is rigged for the fans who can’t control their gambling and gamble until they lose. No conspiracy is needed here.
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