Nationwide online slots, roulette, and blackjack certified federally with minimal safeguards? It sounds like a bad dystopian TV episode.
Mike Selig, CFTC chair, on Bloomberg’s Odd Lots was asked if prediction markets could power online casino games. He pushed back, but conceded it could happen.
“It’s possible that you could construct some sort of contract, an esoteric derivative [on roulette], but really, the underlying in a game of skill [versus a game of chance] is very different,” Selig said. “There’s a clear economic risk associated with, for example, the Super Bowl [contracts].”
It remains uncertain whether Selig would stand in the way of online casino prediction markets.
As of February 2026, no U.S.-facing prediction market has publicly announced plans for online casino games. Nonetheless, it’s worthwhile to discuss what they might entail.
What is an Online Casino Prediction Market?
These products don’t currently exist in the U.S. If developed, they’d offer stock-market-style trading on casino game outcomes.
Users could bet “yes” or “no” on casino outcomes. Binary options trading might apply.
This product format could, in theory, allow the CFTC to “regulate” it.
The game structure would differ from traditional (i.e., house-banked) online casinos, but the user experience would likely remain similar. The potential addiction and financial harm would also be comparable.
Why Would Online Casino Prediction Markets Exist?
Online casino games are far more lucrative for a gambling operator than sports betting. Right now, the leading prediction markets get most of their wagering volume from sports.
Prediction markets profit from trading fees. Similar fees could apply to online casino games, which can be played more frequently and faster than sports bets.
Online casino games usually attract a broader audience than sports betting.
Leading prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have remarkable 11-figure valuations. These companies may seek online casinos to justify those valuations.
DraftKings and FanDuel, which launched their own prediction market products, are the U.S. leaders in both traditional online sports betting and online casino gambling.
Would States Fight Back Against Federal Online Casinos?
Yes. Many states already challenge sportsbook prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, and would do the same for online casino prediction markets.
Prediction markets do not pay state taxes on their sports trading revenue.
The backlash against online casino markets could be even more intense, as online casinos are typically considered more harmful than sports betting. There is research to show that online sports betting is among the most addictive forms of gambling, but there is generally greater policymaker concern with online casinos than with online sports betting.
More than two dozen states legalized and regulated online sportsbooks, while fewer than 10 have done so for traditional online casinos. The latter product is also divisive among the broader U.S. casino sector due to cannibalization fears.
Online casino prediction markets would face uncertain legal ground. As the CFTC chair noted, there is no clear economic rationale for betting on roulette in a prediction market.
The rationale for prediction market sports betting is already quite dubious.
Why Could Prediction Market Casino Games Be Dangerous?
Online casino products of any kind are highly addictive and cause widespread harm.
In the context of federally certified online casinos, gambling would be available to people aged 18 or older. States with traditional online casinos set the legal age at 21. Online casino prediction markets would undercut state age requirements.
Prediction markets are also not required to have self-exclusion, which can be of help to people with severe gambling problems. Prediction markets are also not required to display a gambling helpline resource.
Online casino prediction markets could operate without any so-called responsible gambling safeguards.
Bottom Line
The key takeaway: There is no immediate cause for alarm about online casino prediction markets, as none currently exist. What is troubling is that online casino gambling remains prevalent in the U.S., whether regulated or not.
Americans spent more than $10 billion on state-regulated online casino gambling in 2025 and billions more on grey and black market platforms.
Online casino prediction markets would fuel immense harm, but they don’t exist yet. They may never be developed due to the backlash and the CFTC’s apparent uneasiness with them.
A potential Supreme Court decision could prevent prediction markets from offering sports betting, potentially making casino prediction markets illegal as well.
That said, it is worth monitoring the prediction market sector and its plans for expansion. The industry causes harm right now and will continue to do so.
Image by Aidan Howe from Pixabay