A bill in New York would deal a gigantic blow to so-called “prediction markets” — online platforms that take bets on a wide variety of real-world events, including sports.
Under federal oversight, some of these platforms have seen skyrocketing valuations in the second half of 2025.
Under the proposed New York legislation, A9251, prediction markets would not be allowed to facilitate bets in New York on sports, elections, death, war, natural disasters, or publicly traded companies.
They could still take bets on economic and entertainment-related events, for example, but the New York bill would essentially prohibit their core business of sports and politics.
The bill would also mandate New York-facing prediction market platforms to:
- Set a minimum user age of 21 years old
- Implement a mechanism for self-exclusion for people with addiction
- Establish user self-imposed deposit, spending, and time limits
- Prohibit the use of credit cards or other credit-based payments
- Cease sending push notifications that encourage gambling
- Clearly display New York’s problem gambling helpline
- Train their employees to be aware of user problem gambling
- Advertise their products without misleading consumers
- Implement systems to detect and block insider betting
New York could impose a civil penalty of up to $50,000 for each violation and pursue criminal prosecution against prediction market companies. The state could also ask a court to order a prediction market firm to cease operations in New York.
Background on NY Prediction Markets Bill
Assemblyman Clyde Vanel, a Democrat from Queens, introduced the legislation on Nov. 7, 2025. He serves on the New York State Banks Committee and the Subcommittee on Internet and New Technology.
In October 2025, New York sent a cease-and-desist letter to Kalshi, one of the leaders in the prediction market sector. The company is continuing to facilitate betting in New York while the legal fight with the Empire State plays out.
The New York legislation follows Kalshi and Polymarket announcing controversial marketing partnerships with the National Hockey League. The NHL was the first major sports league to endorse prediction markets.
In response to the growth of prediction markets, DraftKings and FanDuel have made moves to compete in the space. DraftKings recently announced an upcoming DraftKings Predictions product. DraftKings already offers legal sports gambling in New York.
Trump Media & Technology Group also announced plans for a Truth Predict product.
What Sponsor Vanel is Saying
Vanel said in a statement to GamblingHarm.org:
“The State not only can regulate these markets, but they must. Here’s the blunt reality: if you want to run what is, in substance, a gambling platform in this state, you get a license. You open the books. You submit to oversight. You prove to the residents of every state you operate in that you actually care about whether they spend more than what they can afford, that you are providing them with resources to help with addiction, and that you have real guardrails against insiders harming them. Yet, prediction markets have done none of that. They’ve wrapped wagering in new jargon and skipped the hard part: licensure and accountability. That’s why states can’t look the other way.
Like the pre-flipper pinball machines, sweepstakes cafes, sweepstakes gambling, and many other schemes that preceded it, prediction markets have rebranded old-fashioned wagering as ‘trading.’ We are already seeing extremely suspect cases where insiders are trading on embargoed information, we are seeing markets that can be influenced by single actors, and we are even seeing markets that relate to war, terrorism, and natural disasters.”
What’s Next
The legislation won’t advance ahead of the New Year, so New York’s prediction markets bill is set up for consideration in 2026. A9251 will carry over into 2026 instead of dying at year’s end.
As of early November, the Committee on Consumer Affairs and Protection had the bill.
We can expect a contentious fight over the legislation if it gains traction.
Industry Reaction to NY’s Prediction Markets Bill
As of Nov. 8, neither Kalshi nor Polymarket had responded publicly to the legislation. There was some reaction from others close to the industry.
Andrew Kim, a Washington, D.C.-based lawyer involved with the prediction markets sector:
“Like most bills, I’m sure this legislation is (probably) going nowhere. It would invite a preemption challenge that would be far tougher (for New York) than the ongoing litigation over whether the CEA (Commodity Exchange Act) preempts state gaming laws.”
Jeremy Kudon, president of the Sports Betting Alliance, a trade group that represents the online sports betting industry:
“This isn’t online sweepstakes or PrizePicks. PMs are not arguing that they’re legal under some skewed interpretation of state laws; their argument is that they are legal under federal law. Rather than waste time on prediction markets, states need to either legalize OSB or make their existing legal markets more competitive. PMs only exist because a competitive OSB market isn’t legal in CA, TX, or FL.”
This article will be updated as more reaction comes in.
In a recent response to the NCAA asking Kalshi to make clear they have no formal relationship, Sara Slane, head of corporate development at Kalshi, said, “It’s no surprise we’ve got a target on our back—that comes with doing something right.”
Bottom Line: Are Prediction Markets Legal in New York?
As of late 2025, prediction markets are legal at the federal level, but their legal status is murky in New York.
Regarding sports betting, prediction markets are considered illegal gambling in New York. Ultimately, the courts will decide whether a prediction market platform like Kalshi must geo-fence to prohibit users from New York.
In the meantime, Kalshi continues to facilitate sports betting in New York despite receiving a cease-and-desist letter regarding sports betting.
For other “event contracts” on real-world events, prediction markets have a clearer legal status in the state. That said, New York is looking to address the federal regulatory vacuum that allows prediction markets to take bets on elections, for example, in the state of New York.
Proposed legislation in New York would significantly restrict the types of markets these platforms could offer within New York.
As a consumer, using prediction markets is a legal practice. You don’t have to worry about exposing yourself to legal trouble by using it. The potential civil and criminal exposure applies to the companies, not you as a consumer.
Other NY Efforts to Regulate Betting
Policymakers in New York have introduced several pieces of legislation in 2025 aimed at strengthening the regulation of traditional online sports betting from companies such as DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM.
Vanel’s prediction markets bill runs in parallel to some of those proposals. Some New York policymakers want to prohibit the use of credit cards to fund an online sports betting account.
Additionally, state lawmakers have looked at prohibiting the use of push notifications that encourage gambling.
A broader look at regulating the use of artificial intelligence by the gambling industry is also on the table in Albany.
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