The vast gambling industry — whether casinos, sportsbooks, or the lottery — uses psychological tricks to make the product seem less financially harmful.

One of these tricks is what I call predatory realism.

Here’s how it works, using a recent online example from a U.S. sports betting lobbying group.

The group, the Sports Betting Alliance, said on social media that people should “Hope to win but expect to lose. Having this mindset will help you avoid chasing losses.”

There’s enormous tension in these emotionally contradictory beliefs. “Hope to win but expect to lose” can be psychologically corrosive over time. The casino sells hope while preemptively blaming the customer for believing it too much.

“Hope to win but expect to lose” may be fine for a rare trip to the casino or a rare lottery ticket. But for gambling apps in your pocket or glued to your hand, it becomes an egregious pitch.

Why is this Predatory Realism?

Here, the gambling trade group subtly admits the truth — that most people will lose — but uses that admission to make the product seem honest or safe. It still doesn’t say exactly how many people will lose at sports betting, which one study puts at the high 90 percent.

This message sounds responsible because the sportsbook industry acknowledges a reality.

But the purpose is to make you think you can tolerate an unpleasant psychological state — a form of cognitive dissonance.

The message becomes: We warned you that you would probably lose, so if you keep gambling and get hurt, that harm is on you.

It’s “responsible gambling” 101 — it puts the onus on users of products proven time and time again to cause financial harm to many users. The apps are designed to encourage habitual use and maximize spending, plain and simple.

Bottom Line

Despite industry messaging, polling suggests that belief in gambling-related myths, such as that you can be due for a big win, is on the rise in the U.S.

More people appear to be chasing their losses on sports betting apps than ever before, according to a recent poll from the Siena Research Institute.

Americans spent nearly $17 billion on state-sanctioned sports betting in 2025, an all-time high. Americans also lose vast sums on prediction markets and unregulated gambling platforms.