Laying in bed with painful cancer symptoms, you turn to a prediction market, betting on a drug trial to offset your astronomical medical costs.

That’s essentially a potential benefit that CFTC Chairman Mike Selig claims prediction markets could provide for “everyday Americans,” according to recent reporting.

It’s bizarre, a bit confusing, and outrageously dystopian.

Drug Trial Hedging

The reporting comes from Punchbowl News, which quoted Selig as saying:

“Say somebody has a condition. They want to be able to manage the potential risk of having a future treatment or medical costs. They can enter into a prediction market and place a bet on the likelihood of something passing a drug trial.”

In 2024, 36% of US households had medical debt, and 21% had a past-due medical bill, according to the U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Black Mirror Episode?

The quote was widely condemned on social media.

“Who needs access to affordable medical care when you can just hedge your potential exposure to lifesaving drugs?” said Amanda Fischer, former SEC chief of staff and adviser in the U.S. House and Senate.

She added, “Seriously, what in the Black Mirror is happening here.”

Dave Michaels of The Wall Street Journal chimed in: “Biotech is basically the hardest market for an uninformed investor to speculate in, but the CFTC says they should do just that? And, how would they hedge big future medical costs without using leverage?”

There are seemingly countless other ways to condemn this cancer hedging idea.

Addiction Risks

Someone with a serious illness, along with their close friends and family, is obviously under stress and emotional strain.

Would they be able to calmly bet on a prediction market in a financially wise manner?

It seems very hard to believe. More likely is problem gambling and/or financial loss.

It really appears that the CFTC provided an extreme, dystopian example to claim that prediction markets might be used wisely by regular Americans rather than just the wealthiest households and institutions.

A recent prediction market poll found that most Americans are aware that these platforms are gambling.

Image by HeungSoon from Pixabay