Polymarket, a leading prediction market brand, has a gambling market on the verdict in the tragic murder trial of Lindsay Clancy in Massachusetts.
As of Friday, the jury was still in deliberations. She faces three counts of first-degree murder for the January 2023 deaths of her three children. It’s a high-profile case that involves mental health and, specifically, claims of severe postpartum depression.
Polymarket’s gambling market on Clancy being convicted of murder had approximately $53,000 in trading volume as of Friday morning. The so-called odds of her conviction were 35%.
The market had relatively small volume, with some bettors set to win or lose four-figure sums on the verdict.
Insider trading in markets like these is always a possibility, but it appears unlikely here.
Gambling journalist Matt Rybaltowski put it well in a social media post: “No juror in their right mind would leak the verdict to a proxy to make a major trade after the jury has finished deliberations.”
What’s more troubling is how murder trial gambling could be deeply offensive and hurtful to victims and their families.
Zooming Out
Another thing to consider: Gambling on murder trials can be harmful to the people placing these bets. For example, one user who stands to win about $5,500 if Clancy is convicted wrote in Polymarket’s public comments: “Fry the b—!”
Clancy isn’t facing the death penalty, so the comment is nonsensical from a legal point of view. It also seems to reflect an extreme view, given the details of the case and the tragedy of a mother allegedly taking the lives of her own children.
Some observers of the trial could, of course, feel this way without betting on the outcome. Yet, as we’ve seen from how many sports bettors act when they have money on the line, gambling may intensify extreme emotions. Wanting Clancy to burn in the electric chair could be something that someone is more likely to feel if they have money on the outcome.
Sometimes gambling impacts a person’s ability to feel empathy. This could be a sign of a problem with gambling and other mental health issues. Gambling can also bring out the worst in people.
Murder trial gambling may appeal to people with already highly emotional perspectives, while at the same time it may intensify those feelings.
Ultimately, these gambling markets are toxic and offer little so-called predictive value to society that prediction markets claim about their products. They are just a money grab by awful gambling platforms.
