The Kalshi vs Polymarket question is important for consumers concerned about the risks associated with betting. Using either platform can cause financial losses and addiction.
These so-called “prediction markets” are pushing the envelope on online gambling in the U.S. and beyond, and many consumers and families don’t understand the hazards.
They have essentially turned the news into a slot machine.
As of November 2025, there is a key regulatory difference between Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi facilitates real-money online betting under approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Meanwhile, Polymarket facilitates real-money and cryptocurrency-funded betting on blockchain infrastructure outside CFTC approval.
Polymarket’s anticipated U.S. product relaunch in late 2025 would be under the CFTC.
Kalshi vs Polymarket Quick Review
Kalshi and Polymarket enable users to bet real money on real-world outcomes, such as:
- Sports
- Presidential elections
- Political debates
- Economic downturns
- Pop culture & entertainment
- War and military actions
These betting markets are marketed as tools for unbiased information or “hedging.” In practice, they function much like sportsbooks or online casinos.
From a consumer protection and gambling addiction standpoint, both carry serious red flags.
Let’s examine why you should be wary of Kalshi gambling and Polymarket gambling.
What Are Kalshi and Polymarket?
Kalshi Explained
Kalshi is a “prediction market” gambling platform operating under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Donald Trump Jr. is a company advisor.
The company, valued at an estimated $10 billion as of late 2025, allows users to buy shares on binary events — often in a “yes” or “no” format.
Want to gamble on what Donald Trump says in his next speech in a mention market? Kalshi lets users do that, under the controversial banner of regulated financial “trading.”
The company claims it’s not gambling.
Polymarket Explained
Polymarket, valued at $12 billion to $15 billion, is another popular prediction market. It offers gambling on many of the same markets as Kalshi.
However, Polymarket operates on the blockchain and in recent years has not been regulated by any U.S. financial authority. Polymarket was barred from operating in the U.S. in 2022, with the FBI later raiding the company in 2024. In a shady maneuver, Kalshi allegedly hired influencers to promote Polymarket’s legal troubles.
Although Polymarket claimed to geo-block U.S. users to comply with federal regulators, access through VPNs reportedly was widespread.
In July 2025, Polymarket, which counts Trump Jr. and the NFL’s Saquon Barkley among its investors, announced its official return to U.S. cyberspace. Retired NFL star Tom Brady recently mentioned Polymarket during an NFL broadcast, but he’s unaffiliated with the firm.
Polymarket agreed to acquire QCEX, a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse, for $112 million. According to Polymarket’s CEO, the transaction “paved the way” for American gamblers to legally use it again.
In early September 2025, the CFTC cleared Polymarket to offer NFL markets. As of November, it was still preparing for a U.S. product relaunch.
Kalshi vs Polymarket Addiction Risk
At their core, both Kalshi and Polymarket can be dangerous gambling products, regardless of what their founders, regulators, or their vast armies of influencers claim.
Alongside a wide range of current events, Kalshi and Polymarket also offer sports betting. Surveys and public health statistics on betting addiction have shown that half of online sports bettors experience some level of harm.
Because of the popularity of sports and the often confusing rules in non-sports markets, sports gambling is the core business for both platforms. Around 90% of Kalshi and Polymarket trading volume comes from sports. That said, during a U.S. presidential election year, gambling on politics surges exponentially.
Gambling products like Polymarket and Kalshi can cause harm among users, including:
- Chasing losses
- Compulsive checking
- Escalating bet sizes
- Emotional dependence
Kalshi/Polymarket vs. DraftKings/FanDuel
Unlike traditional sports betting operators like DraftKings and FanDuel, prediction markets may create a stronger illusion of control or expertise (skill vs. luck).
On Kalshi and Polymarket, you can “cash out” of your wager anytime by selling your shares. DraftKings and FanDuel also offer a cash-out feature that is a poor deal for consumers, but it’s not part of their product’s core design.
With prediction markets, users might believe they’re making rational, data-informed trades—when in fact, they’re often engaging in emotional or impulsive betting behavior.
Kalshi and Polymarket, despite their CFTC oversight, are not subject to the “responsible” gambling standards commonly found in casinos or sportsbooks. There’s no requirement to inform users about addiction risks or offer tools to limit compulsive behavior.
CFTC rules do not require platforms to offer traditional responsible‑gambling tools such as self-exclusion, loss limits, or compulsory time-outs.
In March 2025, Kalshi announced some responsible gambling features. It’s unclear how effective they might be under minimal federal oversight. Critics have noted that Kalshi’s RG tools are hard to find on the platform.
Polymarket, which publicly shamed one of its apparently addicted users, lacks the consumer protection tools that Kalshi offers.
On addiction mitigation, the Kalshi vs Polymarket debate goes in favor of Kalshi. However, users are at high risk using either platform.
Read more: Kalshi Gambling Addiction Risks, According to Massachusetts
The Gambling Disguise
Polymarket and Kalshi have repeatedly said their respective products are not gambling. This is misleading and dangerous. A pending New York prediction markets bill would require them to stop misleading consumers.
Mislabeling gambling products as “trading” or “investing” can severely harm consumers.
Kalshi markets itself as a “financial exchange,” often targeting young retail investors and political or news junkies. This framing blurs the line between investing and gambling.
Like a traditional sportsbook with plus-minus odds, Kalshi and Polymarket tell users how much they can win on a $100 bet. The platforms also have constantly updating feeds of user bets, which can create a dangerous sense of FOMO.
Polymarket and Kalshi have slick, gamified interfaces designed to attract a younger, tech-savvy audience. The platforms are designed for user engagement and continuous betting under the euphemism of “trading.”
Bottom line: The Kalshi and Polymarket apps were developed to be habit-forming.
Regulatory Loopholes
From a legal standpoint, Kalshi vs Polymarket is a draw — but not in a good way. Multiple state regulatory bodies have deemed these platforms to be illegal.
Kalshi’s earlier CFTC approval has given it legitimacy, potentially making users less cautious.
Consumers may assume that the CFTC oversight ensures safety, but financial regulators do not specialize in protecting consumers from the harm caused by gambling. Federal regulators have not yet fully reviewed so-called sports contracts.
Kalshi believes it is exempt from following state-level gambling rules and can sidestep many consumer safety mandates typically applied to online sportsbooks or casinos.
Many states have filed legal challenges against Kalshi, arguing that the platform circumvents state gambling laws, particularly those governing sports betting. Kalshi proponents have issued dire warnings about Kalshi losing its court fights against New Jersey and Massachusetts.
Polymarket has been in even murkier territory, though it will soon be on par with Kalshi.
While Polymarket paid a fine to the CFTC in 2022 and agreed to restrict U.S. users, it remained globally accessible and, in practice, unregulated. VPN use was allegedly common, and the company lacks policies for addressing problem gambling.
Polymarket has been on the offensive to rebuild trust in the product. In 2025, Polymarket investor Peter Thiel attacked critics of his investments, especially people who want regulation.
What is the Difference Between Polymarket and Kalshi?
The main difference between the two platforms is that Polymarket accepts cryptocurrency to fund gambling accounts, while Kalshi does not.
Also, Kalshi was never barred from operating in the U.S., unlike Polymarket in 2022. From a legal standpoint, there are nuances between companies.
However, the two platforms are essentially the same from a consumer protection POV.
Both offer the same style of binary gambling (yes/no “trading”) and make money off of users through either trading or profit fees. They have the same underlying gambling mechanics that harm many users.
They also market in similar ways, with both relying on dozens of social media influencers to promote their products. Polymarket appears more aggressive on social media, even going as far as to harass Taylor Swift. The prediction betting sites have both sought young female users.
From a traditional advertising POV (e.g., TV ads, billboards, etc.), Kalshi has been more aggressive as of 2025. However, that’s because there has been less regulatory red tape around Kalshi compared to Polymarket.
NHL Partnerships With Kalshi, Polymarket
Kalshi and Polymarket are separate companies, but they jointly announced partnerships with the National Hockey League on Oct. 22, 2025.
Under the deals, the betting platforms can use NHL logos and marks. The partnership gives the nascent platforms more mainstream legitimacy.
The announcement did not disclose the terms of the deals.
Despite partnering with the NHL, Kalshi and Polymarket remain dangerous for consumers. The American Gaming Association, the casino industry’s top trade group, called the NHL’s deals with Kalshi and Polymarket “deeply troubling” and “dangerous.”
AGA CEO Bill Miller said the partnerships “risk misleading fans into thinking these platforms offer the same protections and legal clarity as licensed sportsbooks.”
He added:
“Let’s be clear: Kalshi and Polymarket are offering sports wagers without any of the consumer protections or integrity standards required of licensed operators. They lack fundamental safeguards such as responsible gaming tools and anti-money laundering controls. They’re offering sports betting to anyone 18+, where the vast majority of legal U.S. states require individuals to be 21 to wager. And lastly, they’re not accountable to any state regulator or tribal authority—and that should alarm every stakeholder in the sports ecosystem.”
Kalshi vs Polymarket Volume
It’s a fluid situation on the volume issue between these two platforms. The U.S.-facing prediction betting sector is young, and Kalshi and Polymarket are just starting to go mainstream. Market share between the two companies will take months or years to settle.
As of October 2025, reports stated that Kalshi commanded around 60% of the trading market share, with Polymarket accounting for nearly all of the rest. As you can see, Kalshi and Polymarket dominate the prediction gambling space.
However, a shocking Columbia University study published in November 2025 found that Polymarket trading volume was inflated by as much as 20%. It appears Kalshi has been dominating its rival in recent months.
Kalshi’s total trading volume reached about $4 billion over roughly a month’s time, the company acknowledged on Oct. 25. In terms of sportsbook handle, Kalshi handled around $2 billion in bets. The $4 billion figure counts both sides of a trade, so it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison with a sportsbook like DraftKings.
Kalshi’s volume growth has been impressive, but it’s a far cry from the U.S.-regulated sports betting market. For example, New York State only reported that its sports betting apps took around $2.3 billion in bets in September. Online sports betting is legal in 30 states, plus Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico.
Earlier in 2025, Polymarket was the dominant player, despite not having access to the U.S. (remember that many Americans were using VPNs to gamble on the platform). However, thanks to early CFTC approval, Kalshi quickly surpassed Polymarket in 2025.
But with Polymarket’s planned U.S.-facing relaunch, we can expect Polymarket to regain some market share.
Kalshi vs Polymarket Size
As of late 2025, Polymarket was more valuable than Kalshi. However, Kalshi had higher betting volume.
Because they are private companies, we don’t have a revenue comparison. There is no publicly available data to compare Kalshi and Polymarket on revenue or profit.
It’s still the first inning of a long game in the prediction market space. We won’t be able to definitively compare the size between the two for quite some time.
Disinformation and Deceptive Marketing
In their push for engagement on social media, both platforms have engaged in what can be described as disinformation.
Kalshi had one of the most egregious examples during an October 2025 debate for the New York City mayoral election. While taking bets on the words candidates would say, the company’s official account distributed a false quote attributed to one of the debate participants.
The disinformation could have caused Kalshi users to lose money. In 2025, a Kalshi representative suggested it was acceptable for users to “lose their shirt” (have a gambling problem).
Following a gambling scandal involving NBA players, Polymarket quietly deleted a market on the criminal case. It was notable because Polymarket, along with Kalshi, has offered many markets on other high-profile criminal cases.
Do Kalshi or Polymarket Offer Casino?
No, neither Kalshi nor Polymarket offers any form of online casino. There are no slots, blackjack, roulette, or any other similar casino games on either platform.
There has been no indication that Kalshi or Polymarket plans to offer casino products. However, there has been speculation among industry observers.
It is conceivable that developers could adapt binary betting markets to online casino games.
In a November 2025 earnings call, PENN Entertainment CEO Jay Snowden said that he thought so-called “prediction markets” would be integrated with online casino gambling sometime in 2026.
Snowden was the highest-level casino gambling executive to go on record stating that platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, Truth Predict, and others will offer binary betting on slots, table games, and poker.
Bottom: Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Is Riskier?
Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket is safe for consumers vulnerable to addiction.
Prediction markets, regulated or otherwise, can lead to the same psychological and financial harm as traditional forms of gambling. Gambling Harm recommends avoiding these betting platforms.
Until these platforms adopt meaningful consumer protections and are subject to regulation for mitigating gambling harm, they will continue to pose a serious risk to the public.
Lawmakers, regulators, and public health advocates should be paying close attention—not just to what these companies call themselves, but to how they operate.
Right now, Polymarket is slightly more dangerous to users than Kalshi because it lacks any responsible gambling tools. That said, Polymarket is not as popular as Kalshi, so it has fewer users.
Kalshi’s problem gambling tools may function more as public relations measures than meaningful harm mitigation.
The verdict? Consumers are at risk on both sides of the Kalshi vs Polymarket debate.
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