Using a prediction market like Kalshi or Polymarket to wager on the upcoming U.S. midterm elections could be a form of self-exploitation.
The reason is that you’re assuming the financial risk while helping create a product that becomes more valuable through your participation.
Your participation—and the money backing your opinion—is valuable. You’re not merely giving your opinion away. You’re paying for the privilege of turning it into tradable market data.
The Value of Your Participation
Prediction markets are frequently promoted as being as accurate as—or more accurate than—public polling. Presenting their odds alongside conventional political reporting is one way these platforms become normalized. CNN, for example, named Kalshi its official prediction-market partner.
The truth is that ordinary users are not necessarily making the market smarter. You may be supplying “dead” money to the market. Consequently, your mistakes or less-informed bets can create profitable opportunities for a small number of sophisticated participants.
If you’re a casual user, you’re more likely to lose money than make it. One major study found that profits were overwhelmingly concentrated among a tiny minority of users.
A 2026 study analyzing 588 million Polymarket trades found that the top 1% of profitable users captured 76.5% of profits. Separately, several recent cases have raised concerns that some prediction-market traders may be acting on nonpublic information.
You may make money wagering on the midterms. We’re not saying it’s impossible, but it’s unlikely.
The reality is that you put your hard-earned money on the line to ultimately benefit privately owned platforms valued at billions of dollars. Your participation helps create the volume and market data that give those midterm election odds value.
This can be considered self-exploitation. You’re taking the risk while adding economic value to the platform.
Don’t be a mark.
