The NFL says bets on so-called “prediction markets” sports-gambling platforms are ripe for corruption, insider trading, and manipulation, making them a match-fixing risk in NFL games.
It’s a potentially enormous problem, as many fans already partake in the conspiracy theory that the NFL is rigged related to gambling.
It’s also an historic “the leopards are eating my face” moment for the league. The NFL embraced legalized sports betting at the state level following a 2018 Supreme Court ruling, but now sees the latest, trending form of sports gambling—which is under lax federal purview—as a catastrophic reputational risk to its on-the-field product.
“Leopards ate my face” is an internet expression for someone who supported something harmful they thought would not blow back on them, only to be shocked when it does.
The NFL is a stakeholder in the traditional (house-banked) ways fans can lose life-altering sums gambling, such as moneylines, spreads, parlays, and most prop bets. The league is a defendant in a lawsuit over its role in the U.S. sports gambling market, which a former U.S. Surgeon General recently described as the “new opioid crisis.”
NFL Warning to Prediction Markets
The NFL sent a letter to prediction markets last week objecting to numerous forms of gambling on the sport. The league slammed “objectionable bets that threaten the integrity of our games.”
“It is deeply concerning that bets within the objectionable categories that we identified months ago have been and continue to be listed,” it added.
The bets the NFL singled out as especially vulnerable to corrupt influence:
– the first play of the game
– roster/personnel decisions (e.g., which players will start a game, which team will a player sign with)
– will a kicker miss a field goal
– will a quarterback’s first pass be incomplete
– will a receiver’s first target be incomplete
– will a running back rush for fewer than X number of yards on 1st rushing attempt
– broadcast mention markets
– fan/celebrity game attendance
– trades, hirings, and firings
– live pick-by-pick contracts on the NFL Draft
– coaching decisions
– player injuries, including whether certain players will compete, when a player’s next game will be, and whether a player will compete in every week of the regular season
– player misconduct
– timing, number, or types of penalties
– replay results
– officiating assignments
State vs. Federal Oversight
At the state level, gambling regulators don’t allow these types of wagers. But federally regulated “exchanges” that take sports bets offer many of them. Critics say the CFTC, the regulator of prediction markets, has been corrupted. According to dozens of states, federal commodities law doesn’t authorize stock-market-style sports gambling. A Supreme Court case appears looming.
Meanwhile, the NFL is unusually impotent.
“Continuing to list these objectionable contracts threatens the underlying integrity of our games and creates significant risks for our players, coaches, and officials, as well as for those participating on your exchanges. It is imperative that [prediction markets] take further action to remove any objectionable bets,” the NFL pleaded.
Many prediction-market gambling platforms exist, but the leaders include Kalshi, Polymarket, Underdog, Robinhood, DraftKings, FanDuel, and Novig. Their offerings vary by platform, and DraftKings and FanDuel only offer prediction markets in states where they don’t offer house-banked gambling. Kalshi is the leading prediction market by volume, with most of it on sports.
