Is Kalshi influencing Ken Paxton? Is Las Vegas Sands influencing James Talarico?
The stain of gambling money could play a role in a remarkably close race for the Senate in the Lone Star State.
Either way you vote in Texas, you’re backing a candidate tied to—and potentially corrupted by—gambling interests.
Gambling Money Flowing
Paxton, the Texas attorney general and current U.S. Senate candidate, has repeatedly declined to join other states seeking to regulate the prediction market Kalshi after the company and its CEO contributed thousands of dollars to political groups supporting him, according to a new report from Politico.
Kalshi donated $5,000 to the pro-Paxton Lone Star Liberty PAC in May 2025. The following month, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour contributed $7,000 to Paxton’s U.S. Senate campaign.
Four days after Mansour’s contribution, 34 state attorneys general filed a brief supporting states’ authority to regulate Kalshi. Paxton did not join them.
Kalshi, along with rival prediction market Polymarket, is backed by Donald Trump Jr.
Meanwhile, Paxton’s Democratic opponent, Texas state Rep. James Talarico, reportedly has taken tens of thousands of dollars from Texas Sands PAC, funded by Republican casino billionaire Miriam Adelson. Talarico has supported legalized casinos and sports gambling in Texas.
Growing Problem for Paxton
Talarico’s subservience to gambling interests is well-documented, but Paxton now faces a new problem in a razor-thin race: his ties to a deeply controversial prediction market.
It isn’t helping him politically that he has stayed out of several multistate efforts challenging prediction markets. These harmful platforms argue that federal regulation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission supersedes state gambling laws.
Texas has been a top target for these platforms because the state prohibits house-banked sports betting.
Most recently, Paxton declined to join 44 attorneys general who argued that states retain authority over gambling within their borders. His stance is remarkable given the law in Texas and his past anti-gambling position.
Roughly a decade ago, his office concluded that paid fantasy sports contests offered by DraftKings and FanDuel constituted illegal betting.
Patrick vs. Paxton
Meanwhile, Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has called on lawmakers to close what he considers loopholes in prediction-market gambling. Most Americans oppose legal sports betting, according to recent polling.
Patrick’s position puts him at odds with Paxton.
Paxton’s campaign declined to comment to Politico. His attorney general’s office did not respond.
The bottom line: The Kalshi donations do not prove why Paxton declined to participate in recent efforts to protect Texans from sports gambling, but his absence stands out as states increasingly challenge Kalshi’s product.
